"Golden year" for Thai rice exports

       Rice exports from Thailand may jump to a record next year on increasing demand from the Philippines, India and Indonesia, says an executive from the country's biggest exporter.
       "Unexpected import demand from India and Indonesia will drive the global rice trade higher," said Sarunyu Jeamsinkul, managing director of Asia Golden Rice Ltd. That will be on top of demand from the Philippines, which may need to import around 2.3 million to 3 million tonnes.
       "2010 will be a golden year for rice,"he said.
       Global production may decline after drought in India slashed monsoon output and storms in the Philippines destroyed at least 1 million tonnes of the crop.Rice, wheat and palm oil hit records last year, sparking concern among policy makers that there may be a food crisis as protests about high prices broke out across the globe.
       Strong demand in the global market would drive Thai exports to a record next year, said Rewat Yenchai, an analyst at Agrow Enterprise Ltd. in Bangkok.Thailand would benefit from a decline in global production.
       Prices may also return to record levels next year if the Thai government maintains its stockpile level, said Mr Sarunyu.
       "We may see rice climb above $1,000 a tonne," he said."There is a strong possibility we will see a rice crisis next year as India faces drought and Indonesia may feel the pinch of El Nino weather."
       Thai 100% grade-B white rice, the benchmark regional export price, was set at $541 a tonne last week. The price surged to a record $1,038 in May 2008.
       "Still, if the Thai government sells inventories under government-togovernment contracts at friendly prices,we could see the price in the range of $600 to $700," Mr Sarunyu said.
       Thai prices are unlikely to hit a record next year because of limited purchasing power and the high level of stockpiles held by the government, Mr Rewat said.
       Thailand's stockpiles at the end of the 2008-09 marketing year on Sept 30 were 3.12 million tonnes, according to US Department of Agriculture figures.Inventories would rise to 3.52 million tonnes next year, the USDA estimated.
       Thai rice exports would approach a record 10 million tonnes in 2010 on higher African demand and a lack of shipments from India, Chookiat Ophaswongse, the president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said last month.Production may climb to 35 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 32 million tonnes, he said last week
       The country's exports this year may total 8.3 million tonnes, lower than the association's target of 9 million, as Thai prices are less competitive than rivals and buyers built up stockpiles after prices jumped last year, Mr Sarunyu said.
       Asia Golden, which was set up in 1999 by a group of traders and millers, may export up to 1.6 million tonnes of rice next year, up 23% from a planned 1.3 million this year, he added.
       The Philippines held its first tender for 2010 supplies last week, a month earlier than usual, and is buying at least 850,000 tonnes of rice in two tenders this year. The country imported a record 2.4 million tonnes in 2008.
       India may buy as much as 3 million tonnes next year and become a net importer for the first time in 21 years. Indonesia, the world's third-largest producer, may shelve plans to export 2 million tonnes of milled rice next year if dry weather causes production to miss forecasts, the state food company Bulog said on Oct 6.