ICCO sees less surplus

       The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) has cut its global 2009-10 cocoa surplus forecast due to an improving economic outlook, its chief Jan Vingerhoets told Reuters financial television yesterday.
       The London-based ICCO has cut its 2009-10 global cocoa surplus forecast to between 25,000 and 50,000 tonnes if weather conditions are normal, Vingerhoets said.
       In April, Vingerhoets had forecast a global cocoa surplus of more than 100,000 tonnes.
       But he said an improving global demand outlook led the ICCO to scale back the forecast surplus.
       "We can be more optimistic about economic recovery in the coming crop year, starting in October," Vingerhoets told Reuters financial television in an interview."The demand outlook is better than in April."
       He also referred to concerns over the impact of the El Nino weather pattern on cocoa production in countries such as Ecuador and Indonesia, and worries over production in top grower Ivory Coast, including the effects of pest and disease.
       Vingerhoets said that if production was lower than expected, due to the impact of El Nino or slowing output in Ivory Coast, then the world could slip back into a deficit of cocoa of around 50,000 tonnes in crop year 2009-10.
       Vingerhoets said he expected global cocoa demand or grindings to rise by 1.5-2.0% in the 2009-10 crop year starting on October 1, compared with the previous year, aided by the improving economic outlook.
       He forecast that benchmark ICE cocoa futures would move in a $2,500-3,500 range during the coming crop year.
       ICE futures were up $27 at $3,125 per tonne early yesterday.
       Speaking on the sidelines of ICCO meetings in London, Vingerhoets said he expected Vietnam and Sierra Leone to join the organisation soon.
       He also said plans to move the ICCO to Abidjan in Ivory Coast had been shelved, and the body would continue to be based in London for the time being.